Winners and losers?
Following Gov. Matt Blunt's announcement he isn't running for reelection the question is, who comes out ahead?
At first blush, it may seem like a boon to Democrats, but it may actually make their quest for the control of the Governor's mansion more difficult. The wave of problems that has only increased in intensity made the Gov a good target. Even his own party split on their support for him; for example see the chilly reception his State of the State received and his mark as "not pro-life enough".
Democrats have wanted to see the door close on the Blunt administration, but they didn't want it to go this way. The wanted to usher his administration out the door, not let him chose his own time. Attorney General Jay Nixon might not be the ideal candidate for a some Democrats, but the young Gov gave him a full clip of ammo.
Conversely, the Republicans now have a chance to get a fresh start. There isn't a whole lot of time to ramp up a campaign, but they also won't have to spend a lot of time explaining away a so-so incumbency.
There are a few potential candidates who are seen as competent and credible.
State Treasurer Sarah Steelman's presser today was a re-election announcement, but that doesn't mean she couldn't be recruited. She has had a successful term as Treasurer and has continued to raise her own profile as a "middle of the road" politician.
Lt. Governor Peter Kinder has said he is taking a look. Kinder's not likely to stoke the fire in the base, but he has been seen as effective.
U.S. Representative Jo Ann Emerson is taking 24 hours to consider her options. She has been seen as a good legislator that is willing to reach across the isle on issues that are important to her. Like Steelman, her moderate image and the potential to court independent women would benefit the Republicans as they go into a rough election year.
The departure of Blunt will give the Republicans breathing room, for a short time. Blunt was seen as the weakest Governor up for re-election, and a likely pickup for Democrats. They will have to work hard to get the campaign up and running, but they will get a chance to run against the Democrat instead of against their own record. Updated: Of course we want to include Rep. Rod Jetton, Speaker of the Missouri House of Representatives. As Dave noted below, Jetton intends to also throw his hat in the ring. Jetton may be a popular choice among conservative Republicans, and the young speaker has moved up through the leadership quickly. However, he may have done himself harm in pulling a legislative slight-of-hand last year. Jetton slipped a provision into Senate Bill 22 that allowed a wealthy developer to avoid zoning laws in his county by incorporating as a village. He may line up well on many conservative issues, but appearing to circumvent the legislative process to help a wealthy benefactor is going to hurt his image among all voters; it will also provide a brickbat for his opponents. |