Democrats are circulating a recent poll conducted in Senate 15. It shows a good environment for Democrats – more self-identifying as Democrats 44-39; Obama’s strong support 41 versus McCain’s 29; Nixon’s strong support 33 versus Hulshof’s 16. And their senate candidate, Jim Trout, leads the Republican nominee, Eric Schmitt, 37 to 22 with a lot of undecideds - 41%.
Here's what one resident in the 64th reports. This is obviously incomplete, just a best recollection:
Favorable / Unfavorable: Clay, Slay, McMillan, Smith, Storch, Roberts
Favorable / Unfavorable: Legislature
Is the state on the right track or wrong track?
What is your top concern?
Would you vote for these people for mayor: Clay, Slay, McMillan, Smith, Storch, Roberts
Will you vote to re-elect Rachel Storch?
Does this information make you more or less likely to vote for a candidate: Was director of Clinton campaign in Missouri; Voted to cut health benefits; Was rated 100% by NEA; Was an early Obama supporter.
Let me read you some statements about Rachel Storch: She was director of the Hillary Clinton campaign in Missouri, was endorsed by John Temporiti the Party Chair who usually doesn't take sides in a primary, is considered a rising star of the Democratic Party, Has considered higher office after only serving two years.
Let me tell you some statements about Mike Roberts Jr: He was an early supporter of Barack Obama; he is the son of millionaire developer Mike Roberts.
Steve Brown Poll Shows Large Early Lead – April 23, 2008
A recent poll of primary voters in Missouri’s 73rd district shows that Steve Brown leads his competitor Stacey Newman among all demographics.The survey of 400 likely primary voters indicated that he is better known than Newman (38%/24%) and is very popular among those who do have an impression of him (34% net favorable; 4% net unfavorable).In a head-to-head matchup of the two candidates, Brown has a double-digit lead.Thirty-six percent said they plan to vote for Steve Brown while just 13% said they would vote for Newman.This nearly 3-to-1 advantage is mirrored in the strength of the candidates’ support; nearly a quarter (24%) strongly support Brown while only eight percent strongly support Newman.
SurveyUSA has Blunt's Approval rating way up to 48%. But it doesn't help him against Nixon in this poll. He loses to Nixon in every part of the state and is down 19 points overall.
For those taking note of the presidential polls already, just a quick reminder that only the broadest impressions can be taken from them at this point.
A Time Magazine poll released Friday has Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) defeating Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) 48% to 42%.
A Rasmussen poll released Thursday has former North Carolina Senator John Edwards (D) defeating McCain 47% to 38%.
Finally, Edwards is shown in the Time poll as trailing Clinton (38%) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) (30%) in the polls with 26% in a three-way primary. Edwards has been stuck in the third slot for some time, but has been moved up the ladder some following his wife's medical announcement.
It's true these are, of course, different firms with different sample groups, methods, etc.
The day-to-day can be fun to follow, and it is good data for establishing trends in the long run, but outside of rough estimates of who's ahead and who's behind it's too noisy to make much in the way of a prediction.
Even the aggregate doesn't clear things up that much. It would seem the GOP front-runners, former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani and McCain, are leading the Democratic front runners Clinton and Obama. That said, a few match-ups have them running even or show a Democratic lead.
I just completed a phone survey on the aldermanic board president race. EMH Opinion Sampling was the polling firm. Based in Sacramento CA.
Asked opinions of Firefighters Local #73, Reed, Shrewsbury, Bosley Jr. and McMillan.
Pro Reed statements included over $1 billion in development, establishing integrated IT system for city, starting Bike St. Louis. Cons were his connections to developers and support of TIFs, and never having held citywide office. Also a really odd con statement that his phone number is listed under his wife's name.
Pro Shrewsbury statements included starting meetings on time, outlawing firearms on city property, and making it illegal to leave children alone in cars. Con statements were having an office in the county, working only part time as president of the board, and allowing an alderman to urinate in chambers.
I think the survey was for Reed because of a couple of statements indicating Shrewsbury did/didn't do something for (unnamed) political reasons, e.g. support budget increases for firemen. No references were made to Reed's political motivations.
Spoke with a couple of people about a Shrewsbury poll last week.
Here's the best recollection of those people:
Favorable/Unfavorable on -
Slay
Shrewsbury
Green
Reed
McMillan
Questions about Reed (do you view the following favorably?)
1. Has no listed telephone number.
2. In favor of BJC-Forest Park Deal.
3. Is African American.
4. Would be the 1st African American BOA pres.
5. Close to the mayor.
6. Mayor appointed Reed's wife to be a judge.
7. Is a developer
8. Gives away tax money for development.
9. Has no city-wide experience.
10. Is endorsed by Lacy Clay
11. Favors giving away tax money for Ball Park Village.
Questions about Shrewsbury (do you view the following favorably?)
1. Sponsored/passed legislation to keep drugs and prostitution away from schools.
2. Sponsored/passed legislation for the Citizen Review Board.
More questions about Shrewsbury
1. Do you think he's been at the BOA too long.
2. Do you think he handled the Smith urination issue appropriately?
3. Do you think he's an independent voice willing to go against the mayor?
Also, Would Darlene Green's endorsement be favorable?
Before and after the poll respondents were asked "If the election were held today, who would you vote for?"
From a subscriber: just received a robocall at home asking if we intended to vote? for jim talent? for claire? were you aware that claire supports abortion on demand and testing on unborn babies? paid for by common sense of ohio.
